Countdown Analysis

With over 25,000 games played with my version of the Countdown numbers game, I thought it was time for a little bit of analysis on how everyone has been doing.

At the time I took the data, 25,374 games have been played, and 15,202 were won.

The chart above shows that the most common choice of large number was 1, and that this seems to be the easiest to win with. Choosing 4 or 0 will make your game a lot harder, 2 or 3 large numbers still have more wins than losses.

Looking at success of target numbers, we have this slightly confusing graph. All we can say here is that more games are won as the target gets smaller.

I’ve smoothed out the target numbers in the above graph, so each point is a block of ten possible targets, the winning trend with smaller targets is a lot clearer here.

The target numbers that are beaten most often are:

  1. 104
  2. 400
  3. 301
  4. 100
  5. 152

The targets that are failed most are:

  1. 934
  2. 854
  3. 841
  4. 849
  5. 787

So, don’t be too disheartened if you fail at a high target in the middle of a century, these are really what people are struggling with.

I’ve just started recording the date and time that games are played, so hopefully in a few months I’ll be able to come back and look for trends in games played over time, to see which days are most popular, and which days games are won most often in.

If anyone wants a copy of my dataset, drop me a line and I’ll be happy to provide it, it stores the target, the numbers selected and if the game was won or lost. The most recent games are also linked with the time they were played.


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